***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 97.7 58.4 49.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 9.0 13.8 103.8 60.8 50.5 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.8 13.6 97.1 58.7 48.7 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.3 11.9 13.5 93.7 56.7 49.9 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.3 10.4 13.4 93.5 56.4 49.8 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.6 13.5 97.9 57.6 50.7 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 14.0 105.7 60.0 50.9 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.0 14.8 92.3 57.5 49.4 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 14.0 94.3 55.7 49.5 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.4 14.6 92.0 56.4 49.0 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.7 12.4 12.6 91.9 58.4 49.8 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.9 13.7 12.9 92.6 57.9 49.7 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.3 12.3 13.1 93.9 58.3 49.7 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.1 14.9 15.7 97.4 52.9 47.3 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.7 13.3 92.3 58.5 49.2 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.0 12.6 94.7 58.2 50.4 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.3 13.9 107.3 60.3 50.7 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.1 16.2 91.6 54.3 47.6 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.0 13.7 101.8 61.4 49.8 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.5 20.0 91.5 55.2 47.7 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.2 13.7 95.9 55.9 49.2 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.8 13.9 102.1 60.8 50.5 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.1 8.7 13.8 99.5 60.0 48.4 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.5 15.8 15.0 94.2 54.8 47.9 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.8 14.5 96.7 55.4 49.7 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.3 10.3 13.7 93.2 55.2 49.4 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.7 14.6 99.2 57.6 50.1 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.4 13.1 93.9 57.4 50.1 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.0 19.2 17.8 92.7 54.1 47.2 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.8 13.7 102.4 59.8 50.4 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------