***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 0.0 16.4 130.2 73.5 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.7 11.2 15.5 123.0 65.8 61.9 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 13.2 17.7 16.3 130.1 74.7 66.1 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 15.4 15.1 18.7 140.2 73.3 67.5 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.9 16.9 132.3 69.6 65.0 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.7 11.5 19.1 135.4 66.1 63.5 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.0 10.6 15.5 123.4 66.3 61.1 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.6 16.9 17.9 122.5 66.4 60.9 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.3 10.1 16.0 124.7 68.5 62.0 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.0 15.8 17.0 122.6 67.2 61.1 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 11.8 11.8 16.2 130.7 69.7 63.4 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.7 15.0 16.4 125.8 67.2 61.4 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 8.2 11.7 18.2 133.7 65.2 62.8 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 20.1 18.5 18.5 126.9 71.1 63.8 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 16.8 17.3 20.8 147.7 74.1 69.7 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.4 17.0 133.6 69.8 63.6 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.7 13.1 14.9 119.3 61.6 58.6 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 9.4 14.0 18.7 119.3 66.3 60.2 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 13.5 15.2 15.7 124.4 67.3 63.1 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 8.8 11.4 25.3 126.2 68.0 62.1 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 11.0 14.2 16.0 127.2 69.5 63.9 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.4 15.5 121.8 63.1 59.7 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.9 15.8 16.2 125.8 69.9 64.3 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.1 16.8 17.5 124.6 71.0 62.7 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.6 14.7 18.1 133.1 74.1 67.4 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.5 13.6 19.7 140.5 73.4 64.5 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.1 15.0 17.5 130.1 73.8 66.2 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.9 10.1 19.0 142.2 73.2 67.7 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.1 17.5 21.2 121.3 67.6 60.5 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.1 12.7 15.8 125.7 69.5 63.8 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------