***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 66.7 42.3 40.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 4.3 10.2 72.5 47.4 44.2 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.8 8.8 60.3 40.8 37.1 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 9.9 11.2 66.8 46.6 40.5 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.2 4.7 9.0 57.6 40.8 35.7 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.2 3.6 8.7 62.0 41.4 40.2 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.2 11.2 80.5 53.5 46.5 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 9.5 10.0 60.9 42.0 37.0 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.1 2.1 7.8 51.7 34.5 32.5 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.9 3.6 8.1 52.0 36.1 32.7 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.4 8.0 54.2 40.6 34.7 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.2 9.9 8.9 60.4 42.7 36.8 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.6 9.0 61.9 41.0 38.4 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.6 4.0 8.3 51.1 33.8 31.7 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.0 13.0 13.4 77.9 51.6 45.8 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 7.2 8.8 60.4 43.0 38.3 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.4 11.1 81.1 52.8 47.8 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.3 6.6 9.2 55.3 38.1 34.4 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.4 9.3 65.1 43.7 40.5 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 14.7 18.3 80.6 50.5 47.0 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.2 4.7 8.4 56.3 37.5 35.1 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.6 10.3 71.2 46.6 43.2 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.5 8.6 58.5 39.3 36.5 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.5 3.9 8.1 51.8 34.3 32.5 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.3 11.2 68.8 46.0 40.9 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 8.5 6.9 12.5 80.7 48.7 47.0 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.5 11.0 70.6 45.3 41.5 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 9.2 10.7 65.7 46.0 40.3 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 11.4 11.4 63.3 42.0 38.5 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.5 10.1 71.0 48.6 43.2 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------