***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 6.5 0.5 58.7 57.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.7 6.2 0.6 58.4 57.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.4 6.8 0.6 60.1 58.6 5.9 7.0 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.6 4.3 0.1 54.2 52.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 5.4 0.4 54.9 55.4 5.6 6.6 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.2 4.7 0.5 55.6 55.7 5.1 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.4 6.0 0.5 56.2 57.7 4.5 5.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.1 4.9 0.5 53.8 55.7 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.5 6.3 0.5 56.9 56.8 6.1 7.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.8 5.6 0.5 56.2 56.6 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.1 5.5 0.5 55.1 56.7 5.7 6.9 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.0 5.3 0.5 54.6 56.1 6.3 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.1 5.3 0.6 58.5 57.4 5.3 6.7 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.6 6.6 0.7 62.2 58.4 5.8 6.6 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.5 4.5 0.0 49.5 50.4 4.6 5.5 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.3 5.3 0.6 55.9 56.8 6.0 7.2 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.0 5.8 0.5 55.0 56.5 4.1 4.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.8 5.5 0.6 58.2 57.1 3.4 4.3 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.4 6.5 0.6 60.2 58.4 4.8 6.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.0 3.7 0.5 58.0 56.1 3.1 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.3 6.5 0.5 58.0 57.0 5.6 7.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.5 6.1 0.5 57.7 56.7 4.5 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 6.8 0.7 62.4 58.9 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.6 6.5 0.7 60.4 58.1 6.1 7.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.8 5.1 0.3 56.6 55.0 4.6 5.7 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.3 4.8 0.4 53.7 55.5 5.6 6.0 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.7 5.9 0.5 57.4 56.8 5.9 6.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.8 4.6 0.1 51.4 51.8 5.0 5.8 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.0 4.9 0.6 59.7 58.0 3.1 3.9 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.0 6.4 0.6 59.3 58.4 4.6 5.8 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------