***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 3.6 -0.6 44.6 45.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.0 2.7 3.4 -0.5 43.8 46.5 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.0 3.9 -0.5 46.4 46.9 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.0 -0.7 1.7 -0.9 41.5 42.8 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.1 2.3 -0.7 41.5 44.1 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.2 2.8 1.5 -0.7 38.9 44.5 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.6 2.3 3.2 -0.6 44.0 46.1 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -1.2 1.9 -0.5 40.5 45.8 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.5 3.1 -0.7 42.1 45.3 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.0 2.5 -0.6 40.5 45.5 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.3 2.3 -0.7 41.3 45.0 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.8 2.3 -0.6 40.9 45.7 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 4.8 3.4 1.8 -0.6 40.2 45.1 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.2 3.4 -0.5 46.6 47.1 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.2 2.5 2.0 -0.8 41.9 42.3 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.7 3.8 2.0 -0.7 41.2 45.1 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.8 2.7 3.2 -0.6 41.7 45.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.4 1.5 2.4 -0.5 39.8 46.6 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.1 3.6 -0.5 45.1 46.8 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.3 0.9 -0.4 38.7 47.1 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.7 3.5 -0.6 44.2 45.4 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.1 2.8 3.4 -0.5 42.8 46.0 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.9 3.9 -0.4 47.8 46.8 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.3 3.4 -0.5 44.8 47.0 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.3 2.7 2.2 -0.8 42.6 43.4 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.2 1.8 -0.5 38.5 45.3 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.2 4.1 2.9 -0.7 44.0 45.0 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.6 2.0 -0.8 41.8 43.2 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.8 0.4 1.8 -0.4 40.9 46.7 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.9 2.8 3.6 -0.5 44.9 46.7 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------