***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 -1.3 35.8 42.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 1.6 3.9 -1.4 32.9 42.2 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.3 4.5 -1.3 35.5 42.8 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -2.7 -0.9 2.4 -1.5 36.6 41.4 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.9 3.1 -1.4 38.6 42.1 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.3 2.6 -1.2 38.0 44.0 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.3 3.8 -1.4 33.5 42.2 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.5 -1.4 2.9 -1.2 38.0 43.2 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.1 3.9 -1.4 38.1 42.4 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.7 3.4 -1.3 37.8 43.0 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.5 3.2 -1.3 40.4 43.2 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.3 3.3 -1.2 39.1 43.6 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.0 3.0 -1.1 38.3 44.5 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.1 -1.3 35.5 43.0 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.3 3.7 2.5 -1.5 32.3 41.2 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.8 3.0 -1.2 40.4 43.6 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.9 3.6 -1.5 31.8 41.3 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.5 3.3 -1.2 37.2 43.5 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.8 2.6 4.1 -1.4 34.5 42.5 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.2 1.5 1.7 -1.1 35.0 43.7 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.6 4.2 -1.4 35.5 42.3 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.8 2.3 3.8 -1.5 32.7 40.9 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.4 -1.3 36.2 42.8 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.3 4.1 -1.3 36.4 43.2 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.0 2.9 -1.4 37.3 41.9 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.5 2.9 -1.1 37.6 44.1 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.6 -1.3 36.4 42.3 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.5 4.0 2.6 -1.5 35.7 41.8 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.2 0.8 2.7 -1.1 36.9 44.2 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.8 2.1 4.1 -1.4 34.4 42.5 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------