***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 7.1 0.8 59.6 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.7 6.5 0.6 54.8 56.0 3.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 7.2 0.7 57.6 56.3 4.4 7.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.7 3.2 5.2 0.4 54.1 54.3 0.0 3.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.7 6.0 0.6 54.8 56.0 5.1 7.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.3 7.5 5.6 0.8 58.6 57.5 4.8 6.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.7 6.4 0.7 56.2 56.3 3.5 4.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 3.5 1.8 5.6 0.6 50.9 57.0 0.0 1.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.1 6.7 0.7 55.3 56.3 5.3 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.8 6.1 0.6 52.3 56.3 4.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 9.2 7.5 6.2 0.8 54.3 57.5 4.8 7.3 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.5 8.8 6.3 0.9 55.8 58.4 5.0 8.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 9.2 8.3 6.1 1.0 60.3 58.9 4.9 7.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.8 6.6 0.5 52.3 53.9 4.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.8 5.1 0.2 49.3 53.5 4.5 5.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 9.9 8.1 6.0 0.9 57.9 57.7 5.4 7.7 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 6.0 0.5 52.3 54.6 2.8 4.9 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.1 5.9 0.5 51.4 55.3 3.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.9 6.7 0.6 54.7 55.8 3.8 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 1.5 5.6 4.2 0.4 50.8 54.6 2.4 5.6 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.2 7.0 0.7 55.6 56.2 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.4 6.1 0.4 51.5 53.7 4.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 7.0 0.6 55.5 55.4 3.9 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.8 6.7 0.6 53.8 55.4 5.2 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.0 5.7 0.5 55.6 55.4 4.7 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.5 6.0 1.0 58.7 59.3 5.7 6.4 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.0 6.4 0.7 57.8 56.3 4.8 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.7 5.4 0.4 51.7 54.4 5.0 6.6 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.0 5.2 0.5 51.9 54.9 2.0 5.0 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.7 6.8 0.7 55.8 56.5 3.8 5.5 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------