***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 11.1 3.3 85.3 80.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 9.7 10.7 11.0 3.5 83.2 80.7 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 11.0 12.4 11.7 3.6 85.7 81.9 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 4.3 4.9 7.8 2.4 77.9 73.4 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 10.9 12.2 10.1 3.2 83.0 78.7 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 9.6 10.6 9.2 3.0 84.0 79.6 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 10.0 10.7 10.8 3.4 81.8 80.2 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 4.1 5.1 9.2 3.0 83.0 79.7 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 11.8 13.0 11.4 3.6 85.4 81.5 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 10.5 12.1 10.4 3.4 85.6 81.4 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 11.5 12.7 10.4 3.3 83.8 79.8 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 11.2 12.3 9.6 2.9 82.3 79.2 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 11.6 13.2 10.3 3.2 85.3 81.8 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 11.2 12.5 12.1 4.2 88.6 83.6 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 7.9 8.1 8.3 2.2 79.8 73.7 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 11.8 13.6 10.3 3.3 85.5 81.1 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 9.0 9.8 10.5 3.5 80.0 80.3 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 8.3 10.2 10.4 3.6 85.0 82.2 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 10.0 11.0 11.4 3.7 85.3 81.9 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 7.4 8.2 8.1 2.9 80.2 78.5 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 10.9 12.4 11.5 3.5 84.1 80.3 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 9.7 10.9 11.0 3.8 84.0 81.9 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 9.9 11.0 11.8 4.0 87.0 83.7 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 11.5 13.0 11.7 3.9 86.2 83.3 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 9.8 10.4 9.7 3.0 81.0 77.6 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 10.6 11.4 8.5 2.3 79.7 76.1 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 11.1 12.0 10.6 3.2 83.1 79.2 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.3 8.4 2.4 79.5 73.4 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 8.1 9.4 9.8 3.6 85.4 83.3 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 9.9 10.7 11.2 3.5 84.2 81.0 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------