***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 3.1 79.8 79.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 3.5 3.9 5.3 3.2 79.8 81.3 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 4.7 5.2 5.4 3.1 80.6 80.8 1.0 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.1 1.7 1.9 68.1 70.4 -3.8 -2.4 -1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.3 75.2 73.5 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 1.8 1.6 0.7 1.8 73.1 71.2 -1.0 0.3 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 3.1 3.4 5.4 3.3 79.8 81.5 -0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -1.9 -0.9 2.2 2.5 80.7 77.4 -5.3 -4.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 3.3 4.1 3.9 2.5 77.7 76.6 0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 2.8 3.5 2.9 2.6 79.5 77.4 -0.1 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 2.5 3.2 2.8 2.1 71.9 72.1 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 1.9 2.9 2.6 2.3 77.1 74.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 73.2 72.3 -0.8 0.5 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.5 83.8 83.4 0.4 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.5 65.9 66.6 -0.4 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 3.2 3.6 2.2 2.0 70.4 70.2 0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 3.1 3.7 5.1 3.3 81.4 81.4 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.8 81.1 78.6 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 3.5 4.3 5.2 3.2 81.2 81.6 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 0.3 1.0 1.2 3.0 83.3 80.8 -4.4 -3.5 -2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 3.0 3.9 4.8 2.7 79.9 77.2 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 3.0 3.9 5.2 3.4 83.9 82.0 -0.4 0.5 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 3.1 3.9 4.9 3.2 82.1 82.3 0.2 1.1 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.0 81.5 80.7 -0.1 1.0 1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 3.3 4.1 4.1 2.8 79.0 76.6 0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 75.2 73.8 -0.8 0.5 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 4.0 4.8 4.9 3.0 79.2 78.2 -0.6 1.0 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 65.6 66.8 -1.2 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 0.4 2.0 1.9 3.0 82.3 80.8 -3.4 -1.1 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 3.6 4.2 5.5 3.2 80.2 81.3 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------