***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 42.0 45.3 52.9 106.1 57.0 54.3 25.7 39.2 45.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 36.6 33.1 48.2 107.0 59.5 54.4 25.1 32.2 36.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 31.2 44.0 50.0 101.6 56.3 50.8 33.3 40.9 54.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 32.6 40.5 52.6 91.9 47.9 45.2 38.6 41.6 61.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 34.5 48.6 53.9 100.7 55.8 49.7 39.3 45.4 52.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 39.5 39.5 47.5 98.7 53.3 49.6 29.1 35.8 46.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 39.1 41.1 47.5 106.8 60.9 54.4 26.7 33.7 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 45.0 56.0 53.3 92.3 49.3 45.4 48.0 56.3 70.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 26.6 41.3 53.7 100.3 56.2 49.2 27.8 38.2 50.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 36.4 49.9 54.5 97.3 54.3 47.9 39.4 47.3 57.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 32.5 41.7 51.3 98.5 55.4 49.1 35.8 40.5 50.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 33.5 46.0 49.2 93.9 51.4 46.8 35.5 46.0 61.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 49.5 47.9 52.9 100.8 54.9 51.2 36.8 46.3 51.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 44.1 62.7 60.4 101.3 54.5 50.1 45.5 59.0 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 32.8 39.8 45.9 81.0 42.9 40.3 27.6 45.7 59.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 45.4 43.3 50.8 99.8 55.6 50.1 32.0 40.5 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 39.5 43.7 47.1 106.5 60.3 54.4 27.6 36.3 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 38.1 52.0 57.4 97.8 56.8 47.4 36.9 47.6 59.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 29.0 42.2 48.5 104.7 57.6 53.0 27.4 37.8 47.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 36.6 50.4 67.0 89.2 47.1 42.5 38.3 51.4 69.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 30.6 47.4 53.1 101.7 56.0 50.2 31.5 42.8 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 40.1 46.7 49.3 104.8 57.8 53.3 29.3 33.4 54.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.0 38.7 49.8 101.4 54.9 51.0 28.1 36.2 49.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 41.7 53.0 55.1 100.0 56.6 48.9 37.3 50.8 65.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 29.6 43.3 59.8 106.8 59.6 54.3 29.5 34.5 52.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 32.1 38.5 49.2 91.7 47.5 45.6 29.5 38.9 45.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 45.6 44.3 56.4 108.7 59.8 55.5 25.6 40.2 50.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 29.7 40.9 47.9 90.2 48.2 44.6 31.1 41.7 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 54.9 78.9 60.9 95.8 52.7 46.3 59.5 72.8 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.5 41.9 49.0 106.2 60.3 53.8 23.7 35.5 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------