***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.2 11.1 97.2 60.3 51.5 5.5 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.2 10.4 103.6 64.4 53.7 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.3 11.3 101.5 62.8 51.3 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.5 11.6 91.9 59.1 47.8 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 17.9 12.3 100.4 63.9 50.8 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 10.4 94.3 57.0 50.4 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.2 11.0 10.3 105.9 63.2 54.1 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.1 12.7 98.2 60.1 50.3 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.4 12.7 13.4 106.7 66.3 51.7 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.6 13.7 105.9 63.4 51.7 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.9 14.1 11.7 100.6 62.5 50.6 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.8 11.0 94.2 58.7 49.4 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.9 11.1 94.0 55.8 49.9 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.3 16.1 14.9 108.5 64.8 52.9 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.6 10.8 87.5 59.4 44.8 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.2 11.1 98.4 59.4 50.5 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.3 10.0 104.5 62.5 53.7 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.3 14.9 112.3 64.4 53.1 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.9 10.7 101.4 63.6 52.9 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 16.0 17.1 105.8 61.1 52.3 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.7 12.3 103.1 63.7 51.2 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.2 10.6 100.9 61.3 53.0 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.3 11.7 102.7 63.1 52.3 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.5 14.0 111.1 64.2 52.9 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.6 12.4 97.7 61.7 51.7 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.6 10.3 85.5 52.5 47.1 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 11.9 100.6 61.9 52.7 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.0 11.0 93.6 59.6 47.9 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.8 15.8 113.1 64.2 53.5 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.2 10.8 103.2 64.3 53.0 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------