***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.1 8.2 13.7 108.9 63.4 49.4 2.3 3.8 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 10.1 11.6 100.4 61.3 48.7 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.9 12.7 100.8 60.1 47.1 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 9.3 13.0 95.0 57.8 45.4 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.5 13.2 100.3 57.9 47.3 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.2 10.5 89.5 54.4 46.4 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.8 11.2 98.8 58.6 48.9 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.3 16.1 13.6 100.2 60.3 46.2 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.7 13.7 100.9 56.5 46.7 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.2 13.9 100.0 57.6 46.2 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.1 12.6 100.4 60.6 47.9 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.3 12.2 99.1 59.7 47.1 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.7 8.5 12.0 97.3 58.9 47.6 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 14.4 14.7 97.2 56.4 46.6 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.9 10.6 73.6 54.2 39.3 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.5 12.0 99.5 60.6 48.4 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.7 94.3 59.6 47.5 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 10.5 14.8 101.5 58.3 46.2 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.4 11.7 98.9 60.6 47.9 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.5 12.8 18.2 102.8 60.8 45.1 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.0 13.4 102.5 58.9 47.1 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.0 11.5 95.5 58.3 47.2 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.4 11.8 94.6 57.7 46.2 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.0 13.9 98.9 58.5 46.4 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.2 15.2 110.1 62.1 49.5 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.3 9.9 11.5 92.0 56.8 45.6 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.7 14.5 111.5 62.8 50.4 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.4 11.6 89.2 58.0 45.3 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.9 18.5 15.9 102.5 59.5 46.3 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.8 10.6 12.1 102.4 61.2 48.8 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------