***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 15.0 15.9 114.4 67.1 55.8 3.8 8.1 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.6 15.2 123.9 71.9 56.7 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 18.0 15.5 113.2 68.1 56.1 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.0 14.7 91.9 55.4 47.6 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.9 16.5 111.5 62.2 55.7 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.8 15.6 112.4 64.7 54.8 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.7 14.8 119.9 70.0 55.4 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.6 16.3 103.9 60.5 52.4 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.0 11.1 15.1 104.0 60.5 52.7 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 14.9 16.0 107.3 61.4 53.9 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.9 15.7 107.3 59.9 53.6 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.1 15.6 106.4 61.5 53.0 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.2 17.6 115.8 64.7 55.7 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.2 15.3 17.9 112.7 65.6 57.0 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.7 11.6 71.7 47.8 40.4 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.8 15.6 108.5 60.9 53.5 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.9 13.9 14.7 117.6 68.9 54.9 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 14.0 17.1 110.8 63.5 55.7 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 14.1 15.3 122.1 71.1 56.8 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.6 20.3 99.0 57.4 49.8 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.8 15.5 107.1 62.5 53.8 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.5 15.2 117.2 68.7 54.9 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.7 15.1 115.2 66.7 56.1 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 16.4 16.6 111.9 65.2 56.8 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.1 11.4 18.8 119.6 66.5 57.9 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.6 16.7 106.5 61.4 52.0 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 14.4 17.4 120.5 68.6 57.8 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.5 13.3 88.7 54.9 46.4 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 16.7 18.4 109.0 61.7 54.3 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.2 12.1 15.2 120.9 70.2 56.4 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------