***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 7.0 8.9 12.2 101.8 62.3 56.4 1.8 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 5.2 5.6 11.0 98.2 58.9 54.7 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 9.1 8.5 10.5 89.3 55.8 50.5 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 13.6 12.3 13.3 89.1 56.7 51.7 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 9.8 10.7 11.9 89.2 56.3 50.7 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.2 10.9 95.6 59.2 50.7 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 7.1 7.7 11.2 101.0 59.6 55.5 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.6 9.3 10.7 69.0 50.3 43.5 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.2 5.2 11.5 89.1 55.8 50.4 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.2 9.2 10.9 76.5 53.3 46.8 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 9.9 9.4 11.3 85.2 56.0 49.9 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.8 12.2 10.5 75.8 52.5 45.7 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.3 12.0 92.9 60.3 50.4 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.8 12.9 12.9 86.8 56.6 48.3 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 14.7 13.5 13.0 93.9 58.3 53.3 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.5 12.0 91.5 57.2 49.9 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 5.8 8.8 11.8 108.5 63.2 56.7 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 10.3 10.6 68.9 50.5 43.0 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.5 6.1 10.9 94.7 57.6 53.1 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.6 11.3 55.4 42.0 37.0 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.1 10.2 11.9 93.2 57.7 51.8 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.2 10.8 12.0 104.2 60.8 55.2 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 9.2 7.8 11.2 92.2 57.3 51.2 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.5 10.3 10.6 78.2 54.2 45.9 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 8.9 9.9 13.4 97.3 59.7 54.7 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.4 10.7 79.8 52.1 45.5 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 8.1 9.5 12.6 100.0 61.1 56.1 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.3 12.1 89.9 57.2 51.5 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.3 12.2 10.7 63.0 46.1 39.8 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 5.8 4.7 10.9 96.6 58.8 54.2 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------