***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.1 6.0 1.7 68.1 62.5 2.6 3.5 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.5 5.8 1.8 68.9 63.4 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.3 6.4 6.5 1.9 69.3 63.6 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.1 3.8 1.9 69.3 63.9 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.0 4.8 1.9 68.1 63.3 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.6 4.5 1.8 66.4 61.5 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.6 4.0 5.7 1.7 66.7 62.6 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.3 0.5 4.7 1.8 68.3 63.0 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.1 5.7 2.0 68.3 63.7 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.8 5.2 1.9 67.3 62.9 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.2 4.9 1.8 67.9 63.0 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.6 4.8 1.8 67.7 63.2 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.8 4.4 1.7 63.8 61.2 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.2 6.1 2.0 64.3 63.0 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.8 4.7 2.0 72.8 65.4 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.8 4.5 1.7 66.9 61.9 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.2 4.7 5.8 1.8 68.4 63.6 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.8 5.2 1.8 64.4 62.0 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.2 6.1 1.9 69.2 63.6 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.9 3.8 1.6 65.3 61.6 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.1 6.3 6.1 1.9 68.3 63.8 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.6 5.4 5.9 1.8 67.9 64.0 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.4 6.5 1.9 67.9 63.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 7.6 6.4 6.0 1.9 65.4 63.1 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.7 4.8 1.8 67.5 62.5 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.1 4.3 1.6 65.5 62.2 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.0 5.5 1.7 66.3 61.7 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 5.9 6.4 4.2 2.0 70.0 63.8 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.4 2.7 4.7 1.7 63.1 61.5 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 6.2 4.9 5.9 1.8 68.3 63.4 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------