***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 7.2 7.3 8.0 0.7 55.5 55.0 4.9 6.8 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.9 7.9 0.6 55.2 54.1 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.6 8.5 0.7 54.9 54.6 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.8 5.7 1.0 58.7 58.3 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.3 6.8 0.6 54.3 54.5 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.7 5.9 0.5 52.4 53.0 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.4 7.7 0.5 53.5 53.2 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.6 6.1 0.4 50.1 52.4 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.6 7.7 0.6 55.1 54.8 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.8 6.8 0.5 51.9 52.9 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.2 7.2 0.5 52.1 53.0 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.0 6.5 0.4 50.2 51.9 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.2 6.6 0.0 45.8 48.4 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.7 7.8 0.4 50.7 52.6 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.8 7.3 1.4 62.4 61.2 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.2 6.6 0.3 50.5 51.7 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.2 7.5 0.5 53.4 53.9 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.1 6.4 0.3 48.4 51.2 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.0 8.1 0.6 54.7 54.2 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 4.7 0.1 45.5 49.6 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.7 8.2 0.6 55.0 54.3 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.5 7.7 0.6 52.2 54.5 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.7 8.3 0.6 54.1 54.1 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.7 7.8 0.5 51.3 52.8 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.8 7.0 0.5 55.6 54.0 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.5 6.5 5.7 0.1 44.9 49.7 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.1 6.7 7.5 0.4 54.0 53.1 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.6 7.2 6.5 1.1 59.0 58.8 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.8 5.7 0.1 46.0 49.5 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.6 8.0 0.7 55.3 54.6 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------