***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 11.2 12.1 12.0 3.5 83.0 81.5 6.2 8.4 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.3 12.0 3.4 78.9 79.4 6.5 7.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 11.8 12.4 12.8 3.7 80.3 80.7 7.0 9.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 5.2 5.9 8.7 3.6 85.5 83.7 1.3 3.3 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 11.6 12.3 10.7 3.2 79.3 78.2 7.3 9.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 10.2 11.1 9.8 3.3 81.5 79.5 6.8 8.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 10.1 11.0 11.6 3.2 77.7 77.7 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 3.7 3.7 9.9 3.1 74.2 75.7 0.7 2.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 12.1 12.8 11.7 3.3 80.5 79.3 7.3 10.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 10.8 11.3 11.0 3.4 76.4 77.0 6.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.7 11.4 3.2 77.3 76.6 7.6 9.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 11.3 12.0 10.3 3.0 75.6 76.6 7.5 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.6 11.5 3.1 74.7 75.6 7.1 9.1 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 11.4 11.7 12.6 3.7 75.9 77.2 7.5 9.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 9.0 10.5 10.1 3.6 91.1 87.6 5.9 7.1 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 12.1 12.8 10.7 3.0 75.6 75.6 8.0 9.7 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 9.5 10.0 11.3 3.2 76.7 77.5 5.6 7.6 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 8.2 8.4 10.6 3.3 71.5 74.0 4.9 7.1 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 10.8 11.5 12.3 3.5 78.4 79.5 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.3 8.0 9.1 3.0 70.0 72.3 3.7 5.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 11.8 12.4 12.3 3.3 79.2 79.0 7.1 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 10.2 10.3 11.7 3.3 76.8 77.8 6.1 7.9 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 10.4 10.9 12.6 3.6 78.6 79.4 6.3 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 11.9 12.4 12.4 3.6 75.6 77.2 7.4 9.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 10.3 11.3 11.0 3.3 82.8 80.0 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 10.8 11.7 9.4 2.8 76.3 77.0 6.9 7.5 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 11.8 12.4 11.5 3.3 80.2 78.9 6.8 9.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 9.5 9.9 9.5 3.5 86.5 83.5 6.1 8.2 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.8 10.2 3.3 70.2 73.0 3.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 10.5 11.1 12.2 3.5 80.8 80.5 6.2 7.9 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------