***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 0.7 1.2 2.7 1.6 72.9 69.6 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.6 2.4 1.6 74.7 71.5 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 2.0 2.3 2.8 1.7 76.6 72.3 0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 -3.2 -2.7 0.2 1.9 79.3 75.0 -4.5 -4.1 -3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 75.8 72.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0 1.8 76.9 74.0 -2.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 0.3 0.6 2.4 1.6 72.6 70.2 -1.3 -0.7 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -4.3 -4.2 -0.9 1.5 71.3 68.7 -6.3 -4.7 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.7 76.7 72.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 0.0 0.3 -0.3 1.6 73.3 70.5 -1.2 -0.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.6 72.1 70.7 -1.7 -0.6 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 1.5 69.4 67.9 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 1.5 68.0 68.4 -1.5 -0.7 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 72.7 71.4 -0.2 0.3 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 0.4 1.4 1.6 2.0 82.9 78.5 -1.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.6 71.6 70.3 -0.7 0.3 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 0.1 0.4 2.4 1.7 76.6 72.0 -1.6 -0.8 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 -1.5 -1.3 -0.8 1.7 71.6 69.5 -3.0 -1.9 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.6 75.1 72.0 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 -4.6 -4.1 -1.9 1.5 67.4 66.2 -5.8 -4.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 0.4 0.9 2.2 1.7 76.7 71.9 -1.2 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 0.2 0.3 2.4 1.7 76.2 73.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 0.5 0.7 2.3 1.7 73.2 72.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 1.7 75.2 72.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.7 74.9 71.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 1.3 63.8 65.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 0.7 0.7 2.4 1.6 72.7 69.3 -0.8 0.1 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.2 0.5 1.9 80.0 76.0 -2.9 -2.0 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 -2.3 -2.4 -1.2 1.6 69.8 68.5 -3.3 -2.9 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 0.6 1.0 2.5 1.6 73.6 71.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------