***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.3 0.5 1.4 60.2 59.1 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -1.4 0.3 1.4 60.9 60.0 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 62.6 61.1 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -4.8 -4.6 -2.0 1.5 61.9 60.9 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 1.6 62.4 60.6 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -1.4 -3.2 1.7 62.5 61.9 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -1.5 0.4 1.4 61.2 59.9 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -7.2 -6.4 -3.1 1.5 58.0 59.7 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.0 1.6 63.7 61.1 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -1.1 -2.4 1.6 60.7 60.6 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -1.2 -2.1 1.5 59.5 60.4 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -1.7 -1.7 -2.7 1.4 57.4 59.4 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -1.2 -3.0 1.4 58.9 58.6 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1 1.7 62.3 62.2 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 1.6 63.7 62.0 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -0.9 -2.6 1.5 58.9 59.6 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.2 0.5 1.6 63.4 61.2 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -3.5 -2.1 -3.0 1.6 59.0 60.4 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -1.1 0.3 1.4 60.6 60.6 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -6.4 -5.6 -4.2 1.5 57.5 58.4 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 1.6 63.1 60.7 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 -0.9 -1.3 0.3 1.6 62.1 61.9 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -0.9 0.3 1.5 61.5 61.6 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -1.2 -1.4 1.7 61.0 62.2 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 1.5 60.6 59.5 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 -2.0 -1.7 -3.1 1.3 55.4 57.4 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -1.1 0.2 1.5 60.2 59.2 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.2 -1.9 1.6 62.3 61.3 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -4.4 -4.9 -3.3 1.6 59.0 59.9 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.3 0.4 1.4 60.7 59.9 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------