***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 4.8 6.1 6.5 3.8 91.7 88.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 4.1 4.9 5.9 3.5 85.5 84.3 -0.3 1.3 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 5.6 7.5 6.4 3.6 89.0 86.5 1.2 2.3 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 0.0 2.7 3.8 4.1 95.7 92.6 -4.1 -2.2 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 3.0 5.8 5.2 3.8 93.5 90.7 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 2.4 6.0 2.8 4.0 98.2 95.8 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 3.4 4.4 5.7 3.3 82.5 82.0 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 -1.4 -0.2 2.8 3.5 90.6 87.0 -5.7 -4.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 4.1 5.6 4.8 3.5 91.9 90.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 3.0 5.2 3.4 3.5 91.0 88.0 -0.4 1.1 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 3.4 6.0 4.4 3.6 94.3 90.9 -0.4 0.3 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 2.9 4.5 3.7 3.4 92.3 87.8 -1.6 -0.9 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 2.5 6.1 3.6 3.6 96.1 91.3 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 4.1 4.8 4.5 3.5 87.7 84.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 4.2 6.9 5.5 4.1 98.0 95.0 -0.6 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 4.5 6.7 4.0 3.7 96.4 92.8 -0.1 1.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 3.5 4.1 5.5 3.5 82.8 82.5 -0.3 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 0.8 2.7 3.1 3.6 91.8 87.1 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 3.8 4.6 5.9 3.5 86.7 84.9 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -0.1 0.7 2.2 3.6 88.5 84.5 -4.9 -3.4 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 3.5 6.1 5.9 3.6 91.5 88.5 0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 3.2 3.9 5.8 3.4 83.5 82.6 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 3.7 4.0 5.6 3.4 85.7 84.5 0.1 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 3.0 5.1 4.5 3.5 91.2 86.6 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 4.2 7.6 6.2 4.0 94.2 90.4 0.0 1.0 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 2.7 4.7 3.2 3.2 91.3 87.9 -0.7 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 5.1 7.0 6.3 3.8 90.4 87.0 -0.1 1.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 2.8 4.9 4.3 4.1 96.7 93.7 -1.6 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 1.3 2.8 2.4 3.6 89.1 85.7 -2.8 -1.4 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 4.2 5.1 6.1 3.5 86.0 84.7 0.1 1.2 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------