***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 46.4 116.9 65.1 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 36.4 32.7 38.8 100.4 56.0 51.6 25.1 32.2 36.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 46.1 51.4 45.9 113.5 62.3 58.1 33.3 40.9 54.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 61.2 70.9 54.5 122.5 72.0 61.6 38.6 41.6 61.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 56.2 54.2 55.6 128.0 73.0 65.6 39.3 45.4 52.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 45.5 49.5 52.8 124.0 72.8 64.7 29.1 35.8 46.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 38.9 36.4 38.0 99.5 54.2 51.0 26.7 33.7 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 73.6 77.8 56.0 123.5 70.4 64.6 48.0 56.3 70.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 48.2 52.4 56.4 128.1 70.3 66.0 27.8 38.2 50.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 60.7 63.5 57.9 127.3 71.9 66.5 39.4 47.3 57.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 57.1 60.8 51.7 126.8 73.1 65.5 35.8 40.5 50.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 61.4 66.8 50.3 124.0 71.5 64.6 35.5 46.0 61.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 57.8 56.2 53.5 127.8 74.2 67.1 36.8 46.3 51.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 63.2 63.7 53.1 108.9 58.7 55.9 45.5 59.0 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 33.5 59.8 53.6 116.3 66.1 56.2 27.6 45.7 59.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 54.8 55.4 51.0 126.6 74.2 65.4 32.0 40.5 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 39.7 38.9 35.8 93.9 53.3 48.6 27.6 36.3 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 59.5 61.2 60.8 122.7 70.7 64.4 36.9 47.6 59.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 42.9 40.0 40.4 102.4 55.8 52.5 27.4 37.8 47.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 58.3 66.3 67.1 112.3 63.7 58.5 38.3 51.4 69.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 46.1 52.1 52.2 124.7 70.5 62.9 31.5 42.8 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 26.2 32.6 37.2 90.4 48.9 46.2 29.3 33.4 54.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 41.5 39.5 44.0 105.7 56.7 54.0 28.1 36.2 49.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 56.1 66.2 54.6 117.7 66.5 61.2 37.3 50.8 65.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 38.5 52.8 55.8 123.5 67.2 63.0 29.5 34.5 52.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 43.0 50.2 51.3 120.1 71.3 62.6 29.5 38.9 45.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 44.7 49.1 51.1 118.7 65.4 60.1 25.6 40.2 50.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 46.2 55.1 52.6 120.6 69.2 59.7 31.1 41.7 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 90.6 90.0 63.5 118.8 68.1 62.4 59.5 72.8 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 39.2 39.3 40.4 104.2 56.9 52.9 23.7 35.5 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------