***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 9.0 118.0 66.3 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.1 8.4 112.5 66.3 54.8 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.1 16.6 9.3 119.4 66.9 57.1 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.8 10.0 124.4 69.4 56.9 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 19.4 10.0 124.6 68.2 55.9 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.2 18.8 10.1 129.5 72.4 54.9 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.2 8.3 110.9 66.1 54.0 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.1 23.2 10.9 139.1 73.0 58.5 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.7 10.3 123.0 65.6 55.4 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 20.4 10.8 130.9 69.8 57.3 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 15.9 9.8 133.6 71.0 57.5 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.1 17.7 9.9 141.6 72.9 58.3 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.4 22.0 10.0 138.2 71.3 57.9 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.2 16.2 10.7 113.5 65.1 56.1 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 17.5 10.1 127.5 71.2 57.7 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.5 19.2 9.6 135.5 73.6 57.2 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.1 7.9 104.9 64.8 52.5 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 18.2 11.6 128.4 71.7 58.2 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.3 8.7 113.8 65.6 55.9 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 21.3 13.7 136.5 75.8 59.0 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.8 9.7 118.7 64.4 56.2 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.1 8.5 106.3 66.3 53.9 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.3 9.2 113.4 65.1 56.5 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.7 17.2 10.7 120.9 68.7 57.3 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.7 15.3 10.0 120.6 68.3 57.2 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.0 18.8 10.3 144.0 75.2 58.0 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 14.6 9.6 120.0 68.3 57.1 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.0 17.1 10.0 128.7 71.4 56.6 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.0 28.0 12.2 128.2 70.7 58.4 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.1 8.7 116.5 66.8 56.0 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------