***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 8.6 94.4 59.3 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.6 7.9 88.2 58.3 48.2 2.0 4.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.2 8.3 89.3 56.4 46.7 3.8 6.3 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 9.5 10.3 97.8 61.0 49.9 5.8 8.3 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 9.8 92.4 59.3 48.4 6.7 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.8 10.6 100.8 63.0 50.9 2.5 5.1 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.3 7.8 87.9 60.6 48.5 3.4 5.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 15.2 11.0 97.9 56.1 49.7 10.6 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.4 9.8 89.9 57.4 46.8 4.3 6.3 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.6 10.4 90.1 52.8 47.3 5.6 8.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.6 9.5 94.5 57.3 49.7 3.9 7.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.7 10.3 104.9 62.9 51.9 5.3 7.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.6 10.6 105.6 64.6 52.4 4.3 8.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.4 11.1 9.8 85.2 47.3 43.5 6.7 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 11.2 11.0 107.1 65.2 51.5 1.6 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.7 100.4 61.5 51.5 3.5 5.8 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.8 7.8 85.3 59.0 47.1 2.8 6.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 8.2 11.0 87.9 50.2 46.3 5.4 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.2 8.0 88.0 56.1 47.1 2.8 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 12.5 14.0 97.4 57.9 50.2 5.5 12.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.0 9.3 93.2 60.0 48.2 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.5 8.1 83.1 56.2 45.1 4.2 8.8 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.1 8.2 86.4 52.6 45.3 5.0 7.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.0 8.1 9.5 84.3 49.1 44.1 6.0 8.4 18.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.2 10.2 97.3 62.2 50.0 3.3 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.8 11.1 113.3 68.1 53.6 5.5 8.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.8 9.5 95.4 62.0 49.7 2.3 4.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.7 10.2 99.0 61.9 50.4 1.8 5.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 16.1 11.9 89.7 53.1 47.3 11.3 15.3 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.7 7.9 89.4 57.1 48.0 2.0 5.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------