***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 86.5 50.1 47.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.1 9.6 78.0 51.6 45.4 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.2 10.8 84.3 53.4 47.2 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.8 13.4 93.4 54.9 48.0 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.4 13.3 98.4 59.0 50.5 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.1 7.2 13.4 101.1 59.0 49.9 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.7 9.3 77.0 50.2 44.8 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 16.6 14.8 104.4 60.4 52.9 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.4 14.2 105.5 61.8 53.9 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 14.9 14.8 105.3 61.4 53.6 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.8 12.6 98.9 57.2 50.2 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.9 12.9 99.6 57.3 50.8 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.9 12.7 96.1 58.6 48.7 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 12.2 12.2 80.6 52.9 45.8 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.9 4.4 14.0 89.5 51.4 46.0 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.3 12.2 96.1 58.0 49.1 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.9 9.2 81.1 54.0 45.8 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.6 15.5 101.9 58.9 53.6 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.1 9.9 78.4 51.7 45.8 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 18.7 101.3 57.7 52.6 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.4 12.7 98.6 60.3 51.0 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.0 9.5 78.7 52.3 44.7 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 7.8 10.4 79.7 51.7 45.9 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 13.5 12.9 91.4 56.5 49.9 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.5 6.6 13.1 89.0 54.4 48.0 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.1 6.7 12.6 92.3 49.9 47.4 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.5 6.0 12.3 86.4 50.6 47.7 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.6 13.4 94.5 55.7 47.6 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 17.0 102.4 57.8 53.9 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.3 9.9 78.5 50.7 45.4 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------