***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 17.5 176.7 76.6 72.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 5.6 9.8 12.8 130.2 65.6 62.1 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 16.2 21.9 17.4 167.1 78.1 71.5 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 21.5 27.2 20.8 179.5 84.2 73.2 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 18.3 27.4 22.5 199.8 87.7 78.2 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 14.1 17.1 18.7 169.5 80.2 74.6 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.6 10.7 12.7 129.1 67.0 61.9 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 20.3 26.3 19.3 161.8 80.3 73.3 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 14.6 25.0 22.1 195.6 86.9 78.0 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 19.2 26.2 21.9 188.5 86.0 78.2 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 16.0 26.6 19.7 187.1 85.1 76.5 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 20.9 26.8 17.3 159.7 80.0 72.0 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 16.0 19.8 20.2 177.7 82.1 75.9 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 19.4 25.8 20.4 160.6 80.4 70.8 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 25.5 32.8 18.4 151.9 77.2 65.0 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 17.6 20.9 19.5 180.0 82.0 75.3 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.2 10.9 108.0 60.9 56.1 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 20.5 34.2 22.8 176.6 84.8 77.1 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.5 14.2 13.9 136.6 68.2 64.2 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 21.1 24.8 20.7 125.8 71.7 67.4 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 13.9 22.6 20.5 189.6 85.3 75.5 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 8.0 6.3 11.0 98.2 55.2 52.8 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 13.8 15.1 16.1 148.7 75.7 67.9 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 24.8 31.8 21.5 177.3 84.2 75.7 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.5 23.6 22.5 192.2 82.8 75.6 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.1 13.9 17.2 143.0 77.4 69.2 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 14.5 18.5 19.8 181.4 78.0 73.2 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 17.3 22.3 19.0 167.0 80.6 69.9 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 32.0 43.5 22.5 159.4 79.6 74.3 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.1 9.1 13.9 141.0 67.1 64.9 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------