***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.4 -2.1 21.2 26.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.0 3.3 -1.8 22.7 28.8 4.7 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 5.6 5.1 3.4 -2.1 20.7 26.4 6.1 7.2 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -0.2 0.0 1.2 -2.1 21.6 25.9 0.7 1.3 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 5.3 4.8 1.7 -2.4 20.5 24.0 5.9 6.9 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 4.3 4.7 1.0 -2.6 20.4 22.3 5.4 6.0 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.1 4.0 3.2 -1.8 23.1 28.8 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -1.0 -1.7 1.1 -2.6 17.3 20.8 -0.2 1.1 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 6.0 5.4 2.6 -2.3 20.0 24.6 6.4 7.3 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.3 1.8 -2.6 17.8 21.5 5.7 6.5 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 5.1 4.4 1.7 -2.5 19.5 23.0 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 5.1 4.7 1.5 -2.5 18.1 22.2 6.2 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 4.9 4.5 1.3 -2.7 18.4 21.2 5.8 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.5 5.0 2.8 -2.4 18.7 24.6 6.1 6.8 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.8 4.3 2.0 -1.6 25.3 29.5 4.9 5.8 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 5.3 5.3 1.4 -2.5 19.8 22.8 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.6 3.8 3.2 -1.7 24.6 30.2 4.0 4.6 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 2.9 2.5 1.5 -2.8 16.8 20.0 3.5 4.5 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.6 4.7 3.4 -1.9 22.3 28.6 5.0 5.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 2.1 1.7 0.0 -2.9 16.0 18.3 2.8 4.0 5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 5.6 4.9 3.0 -2.3 20.3 25.1 5.8 7.1 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.3 3.3 -1.7 24.9 30.0 4.7 5.3 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.7 4.6 3.4 -2.0 22.3 28.0 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 5.8 5.3 2.6 -2.5 18.3 23.1 6.5 7.1 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 4.5 4.3 1.9 -2.3 22.0 24.1 4.8 5.8 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 4.3 3.8 1.1 -2.6 17.3 21.3 5.8 6.2 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 5.3 5.5 2.7 -2.2 21.2 24.6 5.8 6.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 4.0 4.7 1.6 -2.0 22.8 27.0 5.3 6.2 7.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 2.2 1.7 0.9 -2.8 15.7 19.4 3.1 4.0 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.6 4.2 3.4 -1.9 22.5 28.0 4.8 5.8 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------