***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 46.8 51.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.6 3.3 0.0 47.8 52.1 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.4 3.6 0.0 46.2 51.4 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.9 0.1 1.3 -0.2 41.0 49.5 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.5 1.9 -0.2 42.1 49.0 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.9 1.3 -0.3 43.7 48.2 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.7 2.6 3.3 0.0 45.3 52.3 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -1.4 1.6 -0.4 39.4 47.1 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.2 2.8 -0.2 43.5 49.1 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.5 2.2 -0.4 41.3 47.9 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.2 4.0 1.9 -0.2 42.5 48.8 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.2 4.0 1.7 -0.4 41.3 47.6 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.4 1.4 -0.4 41.5 47.5 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.4 3.1 -0.3 43.5 49.4 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.0 2.5 1.7 -0.1 43.4 50.0 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.3 1.5 -0.3 41.5 48.4 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.8 2.6 3.2 0.0 47.8 51.7 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.5 2.1 -0.5 39.4 47.1 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.1 3.4 0.0 48.5 51.9 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.2 0.9 0.7 -0.6 37.3 45.6 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.4 3.2 -0.1 44.8 50.2 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.6 3.2 -0.1 47.6 50.8 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.7 3.6 -0.1 49.1 51.5 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.6 3.1 -0.3 43.3 49.3 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.4 2.9 2.1 -0.1 44.2 50.5 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.7 1.3 -0.4 40.6 47.6 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.6 2.9 -0.1 46.5 51.2 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.1 1.5 -0.2 42.2 49.5 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.0 1.5 -0.6 38.6 46.5 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.1 3.5 0.0 47.0 52.2 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------