***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.3 -1.3 35.6 38.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.2 3.1 -1.1 36.2 40.2 2.5 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.2 3.4 -1.3 35.9 39.0 3.6 6.1 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -2.3 -1.7 1.3 -1.4 32.9 37.2 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.4 1.9 -1.5 32.6 37.6 3.5 5.4 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.1 2.9 1.5 -1.4 33.0 38.1 2.9 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.9 3.1 -1.1 36.7 40.6 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -1.2 1.6 -1.4 33.8 38.2 -1.3 0.1 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.9 2.7 -1.4 33.1 38.6 3.9 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.3 2.1 -1.4 33.0 38.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.6 1.9 -1.4 35.7 38.2 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.5 3.6 1.8 -1.4 33.4 38.0 3.5 5.2 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.4 1.6 -1.5 31.5 37.3 3.5 5.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.9 3.0 -1.3 33.9 39.8 3.6 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.6 1.8 -1.2 32.8 38.7 3.6 4.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.7 1.6 -1.5 33.4 37.6 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.7 3.3 3.0 -1.0 37.4 40.9 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.4 2.0 -1.5 34.2 38.3 2.1 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.9 3.3 -1.2 36.5 39.8 3.1 5.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 0.0 1.1 0.7 -1.4 32.9 38.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.6 3.1 -1.4 33.8 38.4 3.4 5.6 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.6 3.2 -1.0 39.0 40.6 3.0 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.4 -1.2 37.2 39.6 3.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.6 2.9 -1.4 34.5 39.1 3.2 6.4 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.4 2.7 2.0 -1.4 34.4 37.7 2.7 5.1 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.3 1.6 -1.4 30.9 37.2 3.0 4.5 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.4 2.7 -1.3 36.0 38.5 2.9 5.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.4 1.6 -1.4 32.9 37.9 3.5 5.2 6.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.3 0.2 1.5 -1.4 33.6 38.5 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.4 3.3 -1.2 36.6 39.8 2.9 5.1 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------