***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 -1.7 33.6 35.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.8 3.5 4.3 -1.3 36.2 38.2 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.0 4.4 -1.5 34.1 36.4 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.1 2.3 -1.7 35.3 34.5 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.9 2.7 -1.9 32.6 33.4 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.5 4.2 2.1 -2.2 28.2 31.6 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.3 3.5 4.1 -1.4 35.2 37.5 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -1.3 0.3 2.3 -1.9 28.7 31.9 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.9 5.8 3.5 -1.8 31.0 34.1 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.7 4.8 2.9 -1.9 29.6 32.6 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.6 4.8 2.6 -2.0 31.2 32.3 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.9 5.3 2.5 -2.1 29.4 31.3 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.0 3.8 2.2 -2.3 27.2 30.2 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 4.7 3.9 -1.5 34.5 37.1 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.1 2.8 -1.4 35.9 36.4 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 4.1 5.4 2.3 -2.1 30.6 31.6 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.2 3.2 4.2 -1.1 38.0 39.9 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.0 2.7 2.8 -1.8 30.1 33.5 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 4.2 4.4 -1.3 35.9 38.2 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 1.3 0.7 1.4 -1.7 28.4 33.1 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.3 4.0 -1.7 32.1 35.1 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.4 4.3 -1.1 39.5 40.5 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.0 4.2 4.5 -1.4 34.4 37.8 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.1 6.0 3.8 -1.7 32.6 35.6 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.4 2.8 -1.8 34.0 34.7 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 4.3 4.4 2.2 -2.2 25.7 29.8 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.7 3.6 -1.8 32.7 35.0 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.1 2.6 -1.6 34.4 35.1 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 2.2 1.3 2.3 -1.7 30.0 34.0 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 3.6 4.3 -1.4 35.9 37.3 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------