***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.3 -5.5 9.8 11.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 3.5 3.1 2.4 -4.9 12.0 13.7 6.5 7.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 4.7 3.3 2.2 -5.6 9.9 11.4 7.0 9.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -0.7 -1.7 -0.1 -4.9 9.8 12.3 1.3 3.3 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 3.9 3.5 0.4 -5.9 7.5 10.2 7.3 9.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 4.1 1.4 -0.9 -6.6 5.9 7.6 6.8 8.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 3.4 2.6 2.4 -4.9 11.1 13.6 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -2.0 -3.1 -1.0 -6.7 5.2 6.2 0.7 2.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 4.3 3.2 1.4 -5.9 8.7 10.8 7.3 10.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 4.8 2.5 -0.2 -6.8 6.6 7.6 6.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 3.8 1.8 0.3 -6.2 7.8 9.4 7.6 9.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 5.1 3.2 -0.2 -6.2 6.6 7.8 7.5 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 3.5 2.1 -0.2 -6.6 5.5 7.4 7.1 9.1 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 4.9 3.2 1.1 -6.6 8.5 9.7 7.5 9.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 4.5 3.9 2.0 -3.7 11.9 15.1 5.9 7.1 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 4.7 3.2 0.1 -6.2 7.5 9.3 8.0 9.7 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 3.2 2.8 2.3 -4.6 13.5 15.1 5.6 7.6 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 2.7 1.3 -1.0 -7.5 5.3 5.7 4.9 7.1 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 3.6 3.3 2.4 -5.1 11.8 13.4 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 2.1 -1.5 -2.7 -7.7 2.5 3.3 3.7 5.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 4.1 3.7 1.9 -5.8 10.0 11.2 7.1 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 3.6 3.0 2.5 -4.6 14.1 15.4 6.1 7.9 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 4.2 3.2 2.3 -5.3 11.1 12.6 6.3 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 4.6 3.8 0.7 -6.8 7.1 8.3 7.4 9.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 3.3 1.9 0.8 -5.8 8.0 10.1 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 4.7 1.5 -0.6 -6.2 3.3 5.8 6.9 7.5 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 4.7 3.3 1.6 -5.8 8.6 10.4 6.8 9.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 4.7 3.9 0.8 -4.7 10.4 13.1 6.1 8.2 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 1.5 -1.4 -1.7 -7.6 3.9 4.6 3.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 4.1 2.9 2.5 -5.1 11.2 12.9 6.2 7.9 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------