***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.6 22.3 31.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 -1.5 -1.4 23.9 32.9 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 0.2 -0.1 -1.5 -1.5 23.6 30.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -5.6 -6.2 -4.2 -1.7 23.2 29.2 -4.5 -4.1 -3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -3.7 -1.8 23.9 28.3 -1.4 -0.7 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -2.6 -2.3 -5.1 -1.8 23.5 29.6 -2.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 25.2 33.8 -1.3 -0.7 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -6.9 -7.4 -5.1 -2.3 20.1 24.5 -6.3 -4.7 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 -2.8 -1.6 24.3 29.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -4.4 -2.2 20.1 25.6 -1.2 -0.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 -1.8 -2.3 -3.9 -1.8 21.5 28.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -3.0 -3.2 -4.4 -2.1 20.8 26.9 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -2.4 -3.2 -4.6 -2.1 20.4 27.0 -1.5 -0.7 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 -3.3 -2.0 18.6 25.5 -0.2 0.3 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 -2.3 -1.9 -3.1 -1.3 25.8 33.1 -1.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.4 -4.4 -1.8 21.7 28.4 -0.7 0.3 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.3 26.1 33.8 -1.6 -0.8 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 -4.1 -4.8 -5.3 -2.5 16.6 23.4 -3.0 -1.9 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 23.1 32.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 -7.3 -7.9 -6.8 -2.8 15.6 21.1 -5.8 -4.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 -2.0 -1.6 24.4 29.7 -1.2 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 -2.0 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 24.9 32.4 -1.4 -0.6 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.5 23.1 30.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 -1.9 -1.8 -3.4 -2.0 18.7 26.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 -1.5 -1.8 -3.2 -1.8 23.1 28.3 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 -2.0 -2.4 -4.5 -2.2 19.6 26.1 -1.5 -0.6 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -1.6 -2.1 -2.1 -1.6 22.9 30.4 -0.8 0.1 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 -3.0 -3.1 -3.8 -1.5 23.5 30.7 -2.9 -2.0 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 -4.6 -5.1 -6.0 -2.6 17.0 22.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 24.5 32.5 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------