***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.4 -0.1 47.4 50.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.3 -1.8 -0.2 46.5 50.9 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -1.8 -0.9 -1.7 -0.1 44.6 50.1 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.6 -6.0 -4.6 -0.3 40.2 47.7 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -4.0 -3.5 -4.0 -0.2 37.4 47.8 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -4.3 -5.6 -0.4 39.4 47.8 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 -0.1 49.5 51.1 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -9.6 -8.8 -5.2 -0.7 36.2 45.9 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -3.1 -0.2 38.5 47.6 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -4.0 -3.5 -4.4 -0.5 36.9 46.2 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -4.3 -0.3 37.8 47.6 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -4.4 -4.9 -4.7 -0.6 34.6 46.5 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -3.4 -5.1 -0.6 35.1 46.2 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -3.2 -1.7 -3.3 -0.4 40.7 46.9 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -2.2 -4.1 -0.4 41.1 47.8 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -4.8 -0.4 36.7 47.2 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -2.3 -1.9 -0.2 48.0 50.1 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -6.7 -5.8 -5.0 -0.7 36.8 45.2 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -2.2 -1.9 -0.2 44.1 50.4 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -10.3 -8.5 -6.3 -0.8 35.4 44.9 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -2.3 -2.2 -0.1 43.4 48.6 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -2.9 -2.0 -0.4 44.5 49.3 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -4.0 -2.7 -2.2 -0.3 41.9 49.3 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -3.7 -2.7 -3.4 -0.4 38.4 47.2 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 -4.0 -3.1 -3.6 -0.4 39.0 46.8 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -3.6 -4.9 -0.6 37.1 47.0 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -3.7 -2.5 -2.4 -0.2 42.7 48.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -3.2 -4.4 -0.3 41.0 47.9 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -6.7 -5.8 -5.6 -0.8 35.9 44.8 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -2.3 -1.7 -0.1 47.1 51.0 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------