***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 25.8 27.3 34.0 73.2 37.0 36.0 26.4 39.2 45.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.9 27.7 35.0 79.5 39.8 39.1 25.0 31.1 36.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 28.2 35.2 34.8 75.3 37.6 36.4 33.8 38.2 53.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 31.3 40.4 44.8 87.4 46.2 44.1 38.6 41.6 60.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 33.1 39.6 37.2 75.9 37.8 36.7 38.5 45.4 51.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 45.2 40.0 41.5 84.2 41.8 42.6 28.7 42.8 47.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 24.3 30.9 34.7 79.5 43.0 39.4 24.3 33.2 41.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 48.0 54.2 40.4 79.0 39.9 39.4 52.7 59.1 72.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 25.8 29.6 38.4 78.5 37.4 38.2 26.2 37.6 50.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 35.4 40.5 40.3 79.2 39.6 39.1 38.3 47.1 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 30.8 37.9 36.8 79.9 43.1 39.9 35.1 40.2 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 33.5 41.6 37.2 80.4 40.9 40.9 34.9 44.8 55.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 36.9 42.6 36.9 76.4 37.9 37.9 36.8 49.1 55.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 39.7 45.5 40.4 76.2 32.0 35.4 45.6 57.1 66.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 35.2 54.0 55.3 101.5 55.5 50.2 27.8 51.4 63.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 30.4 38.0 37.1 80.0 42.6 40.3 35.7 40.3 51.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 22.6 27.4 35.8 84.3 43.8 41.3 25.5 34.1 44.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 36.3 36.2 42.1 75.3 34.1 35.6 35.7 47.4 60.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 26.1 27.7 34.9 78.4 37.7 38.2 26.8 36.6 48.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 36.4 40.7 49.1 71.6 31.4 33.5 43.3 53.7 64.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 29.2 35.4 36.3 76.6 38.0 37.0 30.6 42.8 46.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 24.7 31.0 36.9 83.7 41.3 40.4 28.6 33.3 53.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 27.6 28.1 35.5 76.8 37.2 36.7 27.2 36.2 49.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 39.6 37.0 39.2 75.6 34.3 35.8 37.0 49.7 65.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 27.5 29.7 37.7 72.4 35.9 35.1 29.6 38.0 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 31.9 32.7 38.3 78.1 34.9 38.1 31.5 39.0 49.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 26.5 32.7 36.1 72.3 36.0 35.2 29.9 39.3 48.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 28.9 42.3 47.8 94.0 50.5 47.2 31.9 42.3 56.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 52.6 52.0 44.3 73.0 32.7 33.8 52.4 74.1 91.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 25.5 28.8 34.4 77.0 38.9 37.7 24.5 35.5 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------