***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.6 10.8 9.2 96.8 61.9 50.8 5.9 8.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.0 8.5 94.6 64.6 49.7 4.2 6.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.5 15.2 8.7 90.4 58.6 49.8 6.3 9.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.0 13.4 11.4 102.1 56.9 50.6 8.0 10.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.9 14.6 10.2 95.9 55.0 49.5 6.7 11.6 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.5 14.1 10.0 95.6 59.5 48.3 4.9 11.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.9 8.5 94.8 66.0 49.4 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.9 17.7 9.9 93.0 52.4 49.7 12.4 17.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.2 9.9 92.0 56.0 48.9 6.3 8.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.3 13.6 10.0 89.9 52.1 48.9 8.9 12.8 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.3 9.4 96.3 52.7 49.9 5.7 10.8 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.5 9.3 98.0 54.1 50.2 8.2 12.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.9 9.8 99.2 57.5 49.3 7.1 13.6 21.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.6 9.8 89.1 58.7 50.6 8.5 14.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 17.7 12.7 108.7 63.9 52.2 3.8 10.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.7 15.2 9.6 100.1 57.2 50.1 5.4 11.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.5 8.4 96.7 66.1 49.0 4.2 8.4 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.2 10.2 84.5 54.0 47.5 8.0 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.5 8.6 94.1 62.3 50.2 4.0 7.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.0 15.6 12.3 88.9 54.3 48.5 7.1 15.0 20.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.8 12.0 9.5 92.7 56.4 49.4 6.8 10.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.2 9.0 99.4 64.4 50.2 3.8 6.5 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.2 8.7 92.9 60.1 51.1 3.7 6.9 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.7 9.4 85.8 56.6 48.9 6.2 11.4 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.4 12.7 10.8 98.2 59.6 49.5 3.1 9.5 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.7 13.8 10.0 99.1 60.3 49.9 5.2 12.7 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.6 12.6 10.1 97.5 61.6 49.7 4.5 8.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.9 11.5 104.6 60.7 51.2 5.0 10.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.1 10.9 85.1 55.9 47.8 15.3 20.4 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.7 8.5 93.2 64.4 49.7 4.8 7.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------