***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.8 9.5 84.6 55.2 45.9 1.2 3.5 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.3 9.3 83.5 52.5 46.6 1.6 5.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.6 10.0 84.2 50.7 45.4 3.6 5.5 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.6 12.4 96.2 61.7 50.0 5.3 7.3 11.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.9 9.4 11.6 92.4 60.7 48.6 6.2 8.3 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.6 12.5 93.9 58.9 49.4 2.1 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.1 9.0 81.5 53.0 46.2 2.8 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 11.8 87.3 57.0 49.3 9.4 13.9 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.7 11.7 90.9 58.3 48.3 3.9 5.6 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.3 7.7 12.1 89.6 57.8 49.2 5.5 7.2 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.9 11.2 93.8 61.9 50.2 4.1 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.3 11.1 91.3 61.4 50.3 4.6 7.1 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.7 11.5 91.0 59.7 48.5 3.7 7.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.4 11.7 12.3 87.3 54.1 47.0 5.1 11.1 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.5 7.9 14.5 103.8 61.8 52.5 1.8 3.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.1 11.3 94.8 61.9 50.3 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.3 9.5 87.2 55.4 47.9 2.8 6.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.5 12.6 85.9 56.5 47.9 4.5 6.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.4 9.6 83.6 51.4 46.0 2.6 7.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.7 13.8 79.5 51.0 46.4 5.8 8.4 13.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.6 10.8 89.4 57.6 47.5 3.5 7.6 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.9 10.2 10.1 87.7 55.5 47.3 3.4 6.4 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.6 7.7 10.2 84.1 49.1 45.7 5.2 7.8 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.5 7.5 11.7 85.6 53.2 46.7 4.7 7.1 16.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.5 10.6 83.9 49.5 45.1 3.5 5.7 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.9 11.6 89.5 57.9 48.9 5.1 6.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.4 9.7 79.9 50.5 44.1 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.6 13.2 100.8 62.8 52.0 2.0 4.5 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.0 13.1 83.4 54.0 47.2 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.6 9.3 82.8 52.5 46.0 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------