***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.0 9.4 67.1 45.6 39.2 3.8 6.2 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.2 9.8 76.0 47.3 42.5 1.8 7.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.2 7.6 9.8 72.8 45.5 41.2 3.7 10.9 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.6 12.9 88.2 51.1 46.5 4.3 7.6 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.2 9.9 72.2 44.9 39.5 2.7 8.4 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.8 12.2 89.0 56.1 46.8 1.1 4.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.8 9.5 73.9 47.9 42.2 1.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.3 14.4 11.3 78.3 51.3 42.5 4.8 12.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.8 10.0 73.7 47.6 39.5 0.8 7.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.8 7.7 10.8 76.0 50.1 40.8 1.6 7.7 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.6 9.7 75.2 49.1 41.6 1.1 9.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.3 10.1 77.4 48.2 42.8 1.5 6.6 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.8 9.8 73.5 45.0 41.2 2.3 7.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.8 11.3 11.1 74.8 48.0 41.5 5.3 13.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.2 17.8 111.4 60.9 52.5 1.5 5.6 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.3 4.8 10.0 77.3 47.7 43.0 1.9 5.2 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.5 9.6 79.6 49.5 44.2 1.5 5.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.5 11.6 11.8 73.9 45.0 40.0 2.6 13.4 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.2 9.7 75.8 47.8 42.6 3.0 7.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.1 7.0 14.5 72.4 47.5 40.7 2.8 10.0 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.5 9.6 71.5 45.9 39.6 3.2 10.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.0 10.0 83.0 51.1 45.0 1.7 6.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.1 9.7 74.9 47.4 42.7 3.5 8.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.4 8.7 10.9 74.1 46.0 40.8 2.2 9.4 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.5 10.6 69.7 48.4 40.5 4.3 6.5 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.5 11.0 80.9 50.2 44.9 1.6 3.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.6 9.9 66.6 46.6 39.6 3.6 6.0 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.8 14.5 100.2 56.9 49.3 0.9 5.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 5.2 10.2 12.7 71.8 45.1 39.3 5.9 13.4 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.5 9.6 72.9 45.4 41.4 2.8 8.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------