***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.8 1.6 5.8 50.1 40.1 34.6 1.6 4.3 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.5 3.3 7.4 67.0 47.5 42.7 2.0 3.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.8 6.4 56.2 41.4 36.5 2.2 5.8 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.3 9.3 8.1 64.4 45.3 40.5 5.6 10.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.3 2.1 5.6 45.8 36.6 30.3 2.0 4.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.9 6.9 57.9 45.0 37.4 2.4 5.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.5 7.7 71.2 50.5 44.1 1.9 5.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.9 8.6 7.3 58.9 45.8 38.8 6.6 10.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 3.2 6.7 57.7 42.8 37.0 1.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.8 7.4 61.5 44.9 38.2 2.8 8.1 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.0 6.4 56.8 41.9 36.8 2.6 6.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.9 5.8 6.7 57.9 45.8 39.6 3.3 8.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.8 4.8 5.7 46.3 40.1 33.1 3.6 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.3 7.1 54.9 40.1 34.3 3.1 8.3 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 7.8 10.2 80.1 53.8 47.4 5.0 7.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.6 6.1 51.9 41.7 35.5 1.7 5.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.4 8.2 76.4 52.6 44.9 2.1 5.1 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.1 7.5 56.9 40.5 35.7 5.4 8.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.5 3.6 7.1 63.3 47.3 41.0 1.0 3.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.0 6.2 8.5 49.3 40.1 34.5 4.2 8.2 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.9 6.4 55.0 41.2 36.2 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.3 3.3 7.9 68.2 47.6 40.8 1.4 4.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.0 4.4 6.9 58.7 45.2 38.5 1.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.4 7.2 57.7 41.5 35.6 2.9 7.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.2 3.2 5.7 43.1 34.3 29.9 2.7 5.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.0 5.8 46.2 40.8 34.0 3.0 6.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.0 6.3 50.7 39.2 34.5 2.2 5.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 6.9 8.5 70.2 47.2 42.6 4.0 7.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.8 8.5 7.7 52.9 40.8 34.2 7.3 12.9 28.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.4 3.2 6.9 62.6 45.3 40.4 2.0 3.5 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------