***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.3 7.0 0.7 60.4 56.5 4.4 7.3 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.6 7.0 1.2 62.9 60.0 3.0 6.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.7 8.5 7.0 0.8 60.3 57.0 4.4 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.4 3.8 4.1 -0.1 53.5 49.7 -0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.5 4.9 0.2 54.3 51.6 4.7 6.9 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.0 4.9 0.5 53.3 54.1 4.8 6.7 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.3 6.9 1.2 63.1 60.1 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.5 5.4 1.0 57.2 58.2 0.7 1.9 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.1 5.9 0.4 53.5 53.5 5.7 7.9 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.0 5.7 0.8 54.7 56.4 4.8 7.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.9 5.2 0.3 52.8 52.8 5.5 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.1 9.0 5.6 0.8 55.5 57.0 6.2 7.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.2 5.5 0.8 55.1 57.0 6.3 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.7 7.0 1.5 63.1 61.8 4.4 7.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.7 4.1 -0.2 49.1 48.5 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.3 5.0 0.3 53.3 52.7 6.1 8.2 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.4 6.8 1.3 62.7 61.0 3.6 5.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.6 6.1 1.3 61.3 60.6 3.0 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.8 7.1 1.2 62.3 59.7 3.3 7.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.3 5.0 1.7 66.3 64.0 1.9 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.7 6.3 0.4 56.8 53.9 4.5 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.1 6.9 1.4 64.6 61.4 3.6 6.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.7 7.2 1.2 61.4 59.9 3.6 6.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.1 6.8 1.2 60.6 59.5 6.4 8.3 9.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.7 5.3 0.5 57.8 54.1 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.1 5.8 1.2 60.2 60.8 5.3 7.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.4 6.4 0.8 60.1 56.9 4.7 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.5 4.1 -0.2 50.1 48.5 4.2 6.4 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 7.3 6.9 5.9 1.7 65.4 63.7 2.1 5.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.7 7.0 1.0 62.8 58.9 3.4 6.4 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------