***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.1 7.7 -0.3 49.8 48.4 6.0 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.6 8.1 7.8 0.2 54.6 53.2 6.3 8.0 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.0 8.2 0.1 54.5 52.1 7.7 9.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 0.9 0.9 3.7 -1.4 32.4 34.9 1.0 4.0 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.1 6.2 -0.3 45.4 45.6 8.2 9.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.6 7.9 5.6 -0.3 47.5 46.5 7.2 8.0 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.9 8.3 7.6 0.1 55.8 53.1 6.5 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 2.6 3.2 7.0 1.1 65.4 60.9 0.5 2.1 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.8 10.3 7.6 0.2 53.2 51.0 8.2 10.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.5 7.6 0.8 62.1 57.7 7.3 9.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.0 6.7 0.1 51.3 49.5 8.2 9.9 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.7 6.9 0.6 59.1 55.9 8.1 9.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.1 7.2 0.5 56.1 54.2 7.7 9.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.7 9.2 1.4 68.0 62.4 7.2 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 5.1 5.2 4.3 -1.8 27.1 28.8 5.7 7.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.9 6.3 -0.1 47.8 47.7 8.4 10.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.4 7.4 0.2 54.2 53.6 5.6 7.2 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 8.5 9.0 8.3 1.7 69.4 64.6 4.4 7.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 8.9 8.9 8.1 0.4 58.3 54.6 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 8.2 8.9 7.4 2.3 73.4 70.9 3.0 5.9 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.2 9.5 7.8 -0.1 49.9 48.7 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.4 8.4 7.9 0.5 59.9 55.6 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 8.6 9.4 8.6 0.7 63.7 57.5 6.9 8.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.4 8.9 1.2 65.9 61.0 7.6 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.2 6.2 -0.6 45.5 44.6 7.1 8.9 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 8.6 9.0 6.3 0.4 56.1 54.2 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.5 7.3 -0.2 51.3 49.5 7.3 9.3 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 5.4 6.0 4.2 -1.5 29.3 32.5 6.4 7.7 9.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 8.4 8.6 8.4 2.4 73.0 70.4 3.9 5.9 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 8.7 8.6 7.9 0.1 55.0 52.5 6.2 8.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------