***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.6 57.7 57.7 -1.0 0.0 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 -0.2 0.1 1.0 0.9 61.6 61.8 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 1.6 2.0 0.9 0.8 58.2 60.2 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -3.7 -3.8 -2.0 0.2 52.4 53.5 -4.8 -4.0 -3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.2 -1.4 0.3 54.1 54.5 -1.5 -0.6 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -0.9 -0.6 -2.3 0.7 56.5 58.0 -1.8 -1.1 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 -0.3 0.0 1.0 0.9 60.3 61.5 -1.3 -0.5 0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -4.5 -4.2 -1.5 1.1 64.8 63.3 -6.1 -4.6 -4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.5 56.2 56.4 -0.7 -0.2 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 0.9 61.2 60.9 -1.2 -0.5 0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -0.3 0.0 -1.3 0.5 58.0 56.6 -1.5 -0.5 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -0.6 -1.2 0.9 62.8 60.8 -2.3 -1.2 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.5 0.8 61.0 59.4 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.5 68.7 67.3 -0.2 0.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.8 -1.4 0.1 53.0 51.9 -1.3 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 0.5 0.6 -1.8 0.5 56.3 56.1 -0.6 0.4 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 -0.5 -0.2 0.9 0.9 60.6 61.7 -1.6 -0.7 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 1.4 69.4 66.9 -2.9 -1.8 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 -0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 63.2 62.6 -1.1 -0.5 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -3.8 -3.4 -2.1 1.7 71.2 70.4 -5.9 -4.6 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 56.8 56.0 -1.3 -0.5 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.9 1.0 62.3 62.8 -1.4 -0.5 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 66.4 64.6 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 69.2 65.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 0.1 0.2 -0.7 0.5 56.2 56.5 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.2 0.9 61.0 61.2 -1.5 -0.6 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 57.4 57.9 -0.8 0.2 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 0.1 52.0 52.1 -2.8 -1.8 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 1.7 73.4 70.7 -3.5 -2.8 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 60.4 61.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------