***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 1.5 1.8 2.5 1.3 64.3 60.4 -0.8 1.2 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 1.5 1.4 2.4 1.7 64.9 64.7 -1.8 -0.2 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.4 63.8 62.0 -0.3 1.2 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -2.6 -2.5 -0.4 1.0 62.7 58.4 -5.2 -3.1 -2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 0.0 0.4 0.1 1.0 62.1 58.5 -1.7 -0.5 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -0.8 0.5 -0.6 1.4 63.1 62.7 -2.5 -1.5 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 0.4 1.0 2.4 1.6 65.1 63.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -3.6 -2.9 0.1 1.7 63.2 63.7 -5.2 -3.9 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 61.9 58.9 -1.4 0.2 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 61.8 61.5 -1.7 -0.6 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -0.3 0.2 0.2 1.1 60.9 59.1 -1.8 -0.8 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.5 62.1 62.4 -2.6 -0.9 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -0.1 0.5 0.2 1.5 59.6 62.0 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.3 72.8 68.5 -1.0 0.7 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.0 59.0 58.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 0.7 1.1 -0.2 1.1 59.4 59.5 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 1.3 0.8 2.4 1.8 67.3 65.2 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 67.9 65.9 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.8 65.8 65.3 -1.4 0.0 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -2.3 -1.3 -0.5 2.3 73.0 69.1 -6.3 -5.0 -2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.1 60.6 58.8 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 1.4 1.6 2.4 2.0 69.5 66.5 -1.4 0.0 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 1.4 1.9 2.3 1.9 70.5 66.6 -0.9 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 67.9 65.6 -1.8 -0.2 0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.3 64.0 60.7 -1.3 0.4 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 -0.3 0.8 0.7 1.7 63.8 64.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.3 64.4 61.2 -1.6 0.4 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.9 59.5 57.7 -2.2 -0.9 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 2.4 72.4 68.7 -3.9 -2.4 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.6 2.5 1.6 64.4 63.5 -1.5 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------