***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 1.3 1.2 2.3 0.1 55.1 53.1 -0.1 0.8 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 1.4 1.7 2.3 0.5 60.5 58.5 -0.3 0.9 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 2.8 3.7 2.4 0.5 57.8 57.4 1.0 2.1 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -2.7 -0.7 -0.1 46.6 48.0 -4.3 -2.3 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 51.2 50.3 -0.7 0.6 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 0.4 0.6 -0.9 0.7 58.3 57.8 -1.7 -0.1 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.5 2.2 0.5 59.8 58.3 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 -1.9 -2.7 0.4 1.4 68.2 67.6 -6.1 -3.4 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 1.8 2.7 1.0 0.4 56.8 55.4 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 1.3 2.3 0.7 1.1 64.2 63.1 -1.2 0.9 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.4 55.7 54.4 -1.4 0.5 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 -0.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 62.1 62.2 -2.2 -1.0 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 59.3 60.0 -1.2 -0.2 0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 3.4 3.7 2.0 1.4 70.8 67.6 0.1 1.7 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 1.7 0.4 0.3 -0.3 43.1 43.9 -0.8 1.0 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 2.0 2.1 -0.2 0.4 54.4 53.7 -0.2 1.5 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 1.0 2.1 2.1 0.6 63.6 60.0 -0.5 0.6 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.8 73.8 71.1 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 1.2 2.2 2.4 0.7 61.8 59.7 -0.2 0.6 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -0.9 0.0 -0.1 2.4 80.0 76.8 -5.2 -3.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.4 1.8 0.2 53.5 53.1 -0.4 0.8 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 0.8 2.2 2.3 0.7 64.5 60.3 -0.5 0.3 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 2.4 2.7 2.4 1.0 65.0 63.2 -0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4 70.0 67.4 -0.7 1.0 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.1 50.5 51.2 -0.4 0.9 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.9 60.0 60.9 -0.9 0.1 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 1.4 0.8 1.6 0.1 53.2 52.6 -0.5 0.6 3.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 0.3 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 45.2 45.4 -2.0 -0.3 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 1.2 2.2 0.4 2.4 79.9 76.2 -3.5 -1.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 1.4 2.0 2.4 0.5 57.8 57.6 -0.1 0.8 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------