***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 24.1 25.8 32.1 62.7 26.7 28.5 26.4 39.2 44.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 24.2 23.6 28.9 63.6 29.4 28.6 25.1 31.9 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 26.4 23.6 32.1 63.5 24.5 28.8 30.4 39.9 52.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 31.7 38.5 39.8 67.3 30.4 31.6 38.6 42.2 63.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 33.3 37.1 36.6 66.9 30.4 30.8 38.5 45.7 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 24.4 25.4 35.1 68.9 28.6 31.9 28.1 42.2 49.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 22.6 23.8 28.4 63.9 29.7 29.1 27.3 33.3 41.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 46.8 43.3 36.4 61.3 24.8 26.9 48.8 61.3 76.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 25.4 23.0 36.8 67.0 29.8 30.7 25.5 39.3 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 36.6 31.3 37.1 64.3 26.7 28.4 39.7 49.9 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 30.2 28.7 35.4 65.8 28.5 29.9 30.6 40.8 58.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 31.4 28.6 34.2 63.4 26.6 28.6 35.0 46.3 59.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 32.0 33.0 36.0 66.2 26.6 30.1 36.4 45.1 59.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 37.5 34.4 38.0 62.3 24.1 26.8 43.8 57.3 68.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 30.2 37.4 41.7 71.9 36.5 35.2 31.7 49.8 65.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 29.4 29.8 35.3 66.9 28.1 30.6 32.0 42.4 53.5 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 20.3 23.1 27.9 63.3 28.1 29.0 24.3 33.1 43.8 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 36.7 33.2 37.3 62.3 25.2 27.1 37.4 48.9 60.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 25.1 24.7 29.9 63.7 27.9 28.4 25.3 37.7 47.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 37.2 34.5 43.4 57.0 22.4 24.5 43.5 55.5 59.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 29.4 22.9 34.7 64.6 27.5 29.4 29.2 43.3 48.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 23.4 25.4 29.6 63.2 25.9 28.2 27.2 32.9 52.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 25.6 23.6 31.7 63.2 25.1 27.9 27.2 34.4 46.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 39.2 35.6 35.8 63.5 25.4 28.1 37.5 56.5 71.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 27.1 27.4 36.7 64.2 26.9 29.5 28.7 39.7 49.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 27.7 30.9 36.9 66.3 29.6 30.9 32.3 39.0 49.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 25.4 31.0 33.6 63.4 27.3 29.0 32.3 38.7 52.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 27.7 28.2 38.7 69.7 33.0 33.2 28.2 42.3 55.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 56.4 44.6 38.9 59.9 23.4 25.7 51.4 82.5 87.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 22.6 22.7 29.8 63.4 29.4 28.5 26.4 35.5 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------