***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 8.6 10.2 91.8 58.3 47.2 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.2 9.1 92.4 58.4 47.3 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.3 10.4 93.9 60.2 47.9 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.6 14.0 13.5 106.0 63.4 50.8 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.9 13.6 107.4 64.6 52.4 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.7 15.0 14.1 124.1 66.6 53.9 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.0 8.9 92.9 59.7 46.9 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.3 19.1 13.7 104.0 61.9 49.9 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.5 13.9 105.0 64.3 52.5 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.7 14.2 105.0 64.0 51.7 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.6 13.4 111.1 65.3 52.6 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.2 13.9 12.8 110.3 63.5 51.1 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.1 16.9 14.1 118.4 64.5 53.6 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.6 16.5 13.6 98.0 63.0 50.3 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 17.8 14.6 114.9 66.6 50.8 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.0 15.7 13.5 115.9 65.6 53.3 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.3 10.5 8.9 92.3 60.9 46.7 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.6 14.0 97.9 61.6 50.6 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.3 9.5 93.8 59.4 48.0 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.5 15.7 88.8 55.9 46.5 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.2 12.0 96.7 59.4 49.4 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.0 9.5 93.9 60.3 47.3 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.9 10.4 95.5 62.4 48.7 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.0 12.7 96.6 62.2 50.3 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.1 12.1 11.9 93.7 57.9 48.4 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.9 14.2 13.6 113.8 64.5 51.3 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.9 10.8 94.3 59.1 48.5 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.9 17.4 13.8 114.9 67.4 51.9 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.2 21.9 14.2 93.1 58.4 49.1 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.8 9.4 92.9 58.7 47.0 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------