***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.5 9.8 67.3 44.3 37.8 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 5.1 8.9 68.2 45.4 38.3 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.1 7.8 9.9 69.1 42.6 38.3 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.4 7.6 13.0 77.1 50.9 41.9 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.6 7.0 11.2 71.2 45.5 40.0 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.7 2.7 10.1 66.8 44.2 38.3 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.6 5.6 8.6 66.8 46.0 38.8 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.6 6.8 10.7 62.1 39.7 36.6 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.7 5.0 11.0 71.9 45.1 40.5 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.2 4.7 10.8 66.2 41.0 37.8 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.3 10.4 65.8 42.6 37.7 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.5 10.1 62.8 41.8 37.1 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.7 3.9 10.4 63.0 38.9 36.3 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.7 8.6 11.2 64.7 38.9 36.3 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.5 6.5 13.1 77.3 53.9 42.5 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.6 10.6 67.6 43.7 38.5 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.9 4.3 8.8 68.0 46.3 38.1 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.9 7.4 11.5 68.5 40.4 38.2 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.0 9.2 68.9 43.7 38.5 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 2.3 3.8 13.4 61.0 36.6 34.9 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.3 10.9 73.1 45.3 40.1 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.5 5.3 9.6 71.1 45.6 38.8 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.1 9.7 68.2 41.3 38.2 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.9 6.4 11.2 69.6 40.7 38.3 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.9 11.9 71.6 44.2 38.9 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.8 2.9 11.3 65.5 41.6 37.3 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.8 10.4 67.9 44.2 37.7 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.7 12.2 74.9 50.9 40.9 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.8 9.9 12.1 66.0 38.8 36.7 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.2 9.0 66.9 44.7 38.1 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------