***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.6 13.0 17.0 14.1 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.4 11.9 15.3 12.8 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.7 13.4 17.5 13.7 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 2.9 2.3 1.9 12.1 12.2 9.9 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.7 13.7 15.5 13.0 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 1.0 0.4 1.4 11.2 15.5 11.6 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.4 12.4 16.9 13.6 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 2.6 1.9 2.1 14.1 14.7 11.1 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.7 14.1 15.6 12.9 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.6 2.1 15.6 15.9 12.9 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 1.1 0.5 2.1 15.9 17.5 13.7 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 0.9 0.2 1.8 13.4 15.4 11.4 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 1.1 0.8 1.8 13.3 17.9 12.4 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 2.2 1.8 2.3 15.2 15.8 12.7 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 0.8 0.2 1.7 11.1 13.1 10.3 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 0.6 0.2 1.7 13.3 18.1 12.9 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 0.8 0.5 1.3 11.6 14.4 12.4 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 2.2 1.4 2.1 14.6 15.0 12.0 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 0.9 0.6 1.5 12.3 14.8 12.5 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 1.7 0.8 2.0 11.2 12.5 9.6 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.4 1.7 13.4 16.5 13.7 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 1.2 0.4 1.3 10.6 10.5 10.5 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 0.6 0.3 1.7 13.2 15.4 12.5 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 1.9 1.5 2.0 14.7 15.7 13.3 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.4 1.9 13.9 15.9 13.9 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.5 11.0 15.7 10.3 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.7 13.3 17.2 14.2 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 1.3 0.5 1.7 12.0 13.0 10.6 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 1.9 0.5 2.1 13.4 13.8 10.8 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 0.3 0.1 1.4 12.0 16.2 13.1 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------