***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.1 5.9 6.4 -0.9 38.8 43.2 4.9 7.3 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.2 6.3 -1.0 37.3 42.3 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.6 6.8 -1.0 38.0 43.1 4.3 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.0 0.5 3.6 -0.9 40.4 44.0 -0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.5 5.3 -0.9 39.6 44.4 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.8 6.2 4.7 -0.7 40.2 46.7 5.1 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.2 6.2 -0.9 37.9 42.3 4.2 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.5 5.1 -0.5 42.0 48.2 0.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.6 6.2 -0.8 40.4 44.8 5.9 7.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.0 5.6 -0.6 42.6 47.3 5.4 7.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.5 6.7 5.7 -0.8 39.9 45.2 5.3 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.5 5.3 -0.7 39.0 46.0 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.0 5.7 -0.8 39.9 45.6 5.8 8.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.7 5.7 6.6 -0.8 40.9 45.1 5.0 7.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 4.6 4.7 -1.0 36.6 41.7 4.1 6.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.5 7.5 5.3 -0.8 39.9 45.2 5.7 8.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.4 6.0 -0.9 38.4 42.3 3.4 5.5 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.3 5.7 -0.4 41.8 48.4 3.5 5.7 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.8 6.5 -1.0 37.1 42.4 3.5 7.0 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.5 4.7 -0.1 44.6 51.8 2.8 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.7 6.6 -0.9 39.2 43.9 4.7 7.5 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.8 6.2 -0.9 38.7 42.6 3.8 5.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.7 5.1 6.7 -1.0 37.3 42.8 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.6 6.5 -0.7 39.6 45.7 6.4 8.7 10.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.4 5.5 -0.9 38.2 43.5 4.7 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.5 7.1 5.0 -0.7 37.8 45.6 5.8 8.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.0 6.2 -0.9 38.4 43.6 4.7 7.7 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.4 5.0 4.3 -0.9 39.2 43.8 4.8 6.6 8.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.1 5.4 -0.2 42.2 49.9 2.7 5.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.5 6.4 -1.0 37.7 42.4 4.0 6.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------