***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.0 5.2 7.3 -1.9 30.6 31.5 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 5.3 4.5 6.7 -2.6 24.5 26.7 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.5 6.9 7.5 -2.3 29.7 29.8 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 3.8 3.4 5.4 -0.2 48.9 48.4 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.0 8.3 7.0 -1.2 37.6 38.8 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 8.4 7.7 6.6 -0.6 41.9 42.4 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 5.1 4.7 6.6 -2.5 25.1 26.8 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 2.6 1.8 7.2 -0.4 45.9 45.6 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.8 7.4 -1.6 33.4 34.5 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.5 7.6 7.4 -1.0 40.5 41.2 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 7.9 7.4 -1.5 34.9 35.8 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 10.1 8.7 7.2 -0.8 41.5 41.5 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.6 7.6 7.5 -1.6 32.3 33.9 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.2 8.5 7.8 -1.8 37.2 37.6 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 7.2 6.5 7.0 -0.1 47.2 48.1 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.9 8.3 7.0 -1.4 35.9 36.8 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 5.1 4.3 6.3 -2.5 25.8 27.7 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 7.9 6.4 7.5 -0.6 44.8 44.6 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 5.6 4.9 6.9 -2.6 25.6 27.4 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 5.8 5.5 7.3 0.4 49.6 50.1 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.5 7.8 -1.9 31.6 33.0 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 5.0 5.0 6.6 -2.5 27.4 28.7 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 5.5 5.4 7.2 -2.5 27.6 29.2 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.9 9.1 7.8 -1.8 36.8 36.5 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.7 7.1 7.1 -1.2 36.9 38.3 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 8.7 7.7 6.9 -0.5 41.1 41.2 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 7.1 6.7 7.1 -1.9 31.0 32.5 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 7.9 7.0 6.2 -0.3 47.6 47.6 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 6.2 5.6 7.5 -0.1 46.6 46.9 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 5.2 5.0 6.9 -2.5 25.6 27.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------