***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 -0.9 -0.6 0.7 -0.6 37.9 42.6 -1.2 0.1 1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -1.5 -0.9 0.4 -0.5 37.6 42.4 -1.3 -0.4 0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 2.0 0.7 0.7 -0.6 36.1 41.5 0.5 1.7 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -3.5 -3.9 -1.4 0.1 47.1 51.2 -5.1 -3.8 -3.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -0.3 42.7 46.1 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -1.2 -2.6 0.0 44.8 49.9 -1.7 -0.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 0.4 -0.6 38.6 41.6 -1.3 -0.4 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -4.4 -4.7 -2.4 0.0 47.5 49.0 -6.0 -4.5 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -0.3 41.4 44.8 -0.7 0.2 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -0.1 -0.6 -2.0 -0.2 44.9 47.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -0.1 -0.8 -1.5 -0.3 42.4 45.3 -1.4 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.3 42.9 45.7 -2.4 -0.8 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -0.1 -1.0 -2.3 -0.5 41.2 43.5 -1.2 -0.3 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.4 -0.9 -0.3 43.5 45.8 -0.1 0.5 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 45.5 49.4 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 0.6 0.1 -1.9 -0.3 43.5 46.0 -0.5 0.5 1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 -0.4 39.4 43.9 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -2.1 -2.4 -0.1 44.8 48.6 -2.6 -1.9 -1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -1.0 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 37.3 42.6 -0.9 0.0 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -4.1 -4.6 -3.1 0.0 47.2 49.8 -6.0 -4.4 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 38.2 42.3 -1.2 0.1 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -0.9 0.5 -0.4 39.3 44.3 -1.4 -0.3 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.4 38.5 43.2 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.5 -1.2 -0.3 40.6 44.8 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 42.3 45.4 -1.2 0.0 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -0.8 -2.2 -0.3 41.1 45.0 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 0.8 -0.5 0.4 -0.6 38.7 42.3 -0.7 0.5 0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -1.8 -1.3 0.0 46.0 49.7 -2.4 -1.7 -0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -2.7 -3.0 -2.7 0.0 45.8 49.4 -3.6 -2.9 -1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 0.5 -0.6 37.5 42.0 -0.9 0.1 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------