***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -0.8 -0.3 0.7 -1.5 32.4 38.4 -0.2 0.9 2.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.2 0.4 -1.3 31.3 39.0 -1.2 -0.3 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.3 0.5 0.8 -1.4 33.1 38.4 0.4 1.6 3.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -4.9 -1.7 -1.2 33.6 39.9 -4.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -1.9 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4 31.2 39.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -2.5 -2.1 -2.7 -1.3 30.5 38.8 -2.1 -0.8 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 0.3 -1.4 31.8 38.0 -1.1 0.0 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -5.9 -4.6 -2.2 -1.1 33.9 40.6 -4.7 -3.5 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 33.1 39.9 -0.5 0.5 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 0.5 -1.0 -1.8 -1.1 33.8 40.3 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.3 30.9 38.6 -1.5 0.0 0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -2.7 -2.5 -1.8 -1.4 31.9 38.0 -2.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.6 29.3 36.1 -1.5 -0.2 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 34.5 40.4 -0.5 0.7 2.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 33.9 40.0 -1.0 0.0 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.8 -1.4 30.3 37.6 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 0.3 -1.2 31.7 39.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -2.8 -2.3 -1.2 33.4 39.8 -2.8 -0.8 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 0.5 -1.2 31.3 39.4 -1.0 0.0 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -6.0 -5.6 -3.1 -1.1 34.4 40.8 -5.9 -4.5 -2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 0.3 -1.4 32.4 38.5 -0.7 0.1 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -1.4 -1.3 0.4 -1.1 32.7 39.7 -1.3 -0.4 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -1.2 -0.6 0.4 -1.2 31.4 39.6 -0.6 0.0 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 0.3 -1.4 -0.9 -1.2 33.0 39.3 -1.4 -0.2 1.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 0.1 -1.3 33.0 39.0 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.4 29.8 37.7 -2.1 -0.4 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 0.4 -1.5 31.7 38.0 -1.3 0.6 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 32.9 39.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -3.8 -2.6 -1.1 34.5 41.1 -3.9 -1.5 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -1.1 -1.0 0.6 -1.4 31.9 38.6 -1.0 0.2 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------